Weather is inherently uncertain, your forecasts should reflect that reality. By integrating confidence intervals and probabilistic weather data, FROGCAST helps you plan with precision, measure uncertainty, and turn potential risks into smarter operational decisions.
Confidence intervals offer a statistical method to quantify uncertainty in weather forecasts. They indicate the probability that real weather conditions will fall within a specific range, giving a clearer understanding of forecast reliability.
This concept relies on quantiles, which divide a dataset into probability intervals to describe the full distribution of possible outcomes.
For instance, let’s say the forecast predicts a temperature of 10°C tomorrow morning :
These quantiles together form a realistic forecast range, (here between 8°C and 12°C), instead of relying on just one uncertain value. This confidence interval illustrates the forecast’s potential variability and helps you prepare for multiple scenarios.
Single scenario forecast: provides only one predicted outcome without indicating the range of possible variations or uncertainty
Significant errors: mistakes tend to grow, especially for the long term forecasts
Local phenomena: difficult to predict (storms, tempests)
No compensation: Individual forecast errors don’t offset each other
Multiple scenarios: understand not just the forecast, but also the level of confidence in it
Improved accuracy: at FROGCAST we aggregate data from +25 numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and ground measurements to provide a more reliable forecast
Realistic risk assessment: avoid unpleasant surprises by preparing for diverse eventualities
Error compensation: combining multiple models balances out individual errors, improving overall forecast reliability.
Simplifies your daily operations: an essential tool for professionals, enabling efficient anticipation and planning of your operational actions
Weather is never certain. Confidence intervals reveal a range of possible outcomes, helping you better manage risks, optimize planning, and avoid surprises. In energy, agriculture, logistics, and events, this knowledge means the difference between reacting and anticipating.
That’s why FROGCAST provides an ensemble forecast, generated by combining multiple weather scenarios from different numerical weather prediction models and simulations.
Plan with confidence using FROGCAST.
FROGCAST’s weather API integrates confidence intervals into its forecasts, giving you both accuracy and transparency. 🚀
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Our forecasts are based on data from major national meteorological agencies. Their optimal combination ensures the highest levels of accuracy and reliability to support your operational decisions.
With access to multiple scenarios, you can develop more robust strategies, accounting for various contingencies, thereby reducing the impact of unexpected weather events.
Our data includes an uncertainty estimate through statistical quantiles, helping you gauge confidence in the forecast. You’ll not only know what to expect, but also how much you can rely on that information.
In sectors such as agriculture, transportation, or event management, every decision matters. Our forecasts allow you to adjust your operations, reducing risks and cutting costs.
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