{"id":3196,"date":"2024-04-24T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-24T07:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/?p=3196"},"modified":"2026-01-27T11:49:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T10:49:07","slug":"gelees-tardives-previsions-meteo-risque-gel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/fr\/blog\/weather\/late-frosts-how-did-frogcast-s-weather-forecasts-anticipate-the-risk-of-frost\/","title":{"rendered":"Gel\u00e9es tardives : comment les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9o de FROGCAST ont anticip\u00e9 le risque de gel ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le d\u00e9but de semaine a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9prouvant pour les agriculteurs Fran\u00e7ais avec des gel\u00e9es matinales tardives presque g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9es sur le nord et l'est du pays. Mais dans quelle mesure les pr\u00e9visions FROGCAST ont-elles permis d'anticiper l'extension spatiale du risque de gel ? \u2744\ufe0f\ud83c\udf31<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"448\" src=\"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-1024x448.webp\" alt=\"Cartes c\u00f4te \u00e0 c\u00f4te de la France montrant les pr\u00e9visions probabilistes des risques de gel de FROGCAST (ombrage bleu) superpos\u00e9es aux observations r\u00e9elles de temp\u00e9ratures de gel (points rouges) pour les matins des 22 et 23 avril 2024.\" class=\"wp-image-3197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-1024x448.webp 1024w, https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-300x131.webp 300w, https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-768x336.webp 768w, https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-1536x672.webp 1536w, https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2-18x8.webp 18w, https:\/\/frogcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/frozen-risk2.webp 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Carte pr\u00e9sentant le risque de gel pour la nuit du 21 avril 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>La figure suivante pr\u00e9sente les probabilit\u00e9s de Tmin inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 0 \u00b0C, d\u00e9riv\u00e9es des quantiles de pr\u00e9visions FROGCAST, pour les matin\u00e9es de lundi et mardi. Chaque point rouge repr\u00e9sente une station du r\u00e9seau d'observation principal de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France dont la temp\u00e9rature est descendue sous les 0 \u00b0C. FROGCAST a particuli\u00e8rement bien pr\u00e9vu les r\u00e9gions affect\u00e9es par le gel pour ces deux journ\u00e9es cruciales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L'utilisation des <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/fr\/intervalles-de-confiance\/\">quantiles<\/a><\/strong> a \u00e9galement permis de rep\u00e9rer les zones o\u00f9 les probabilit\u00e9s de passer sous les 0 \u00b0C semblaient limit\u00e9es, mais qui ont finalement \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9es par les gel\u00e9es matinales. L'utilisation d'une pr\u00e9vision bas\u00e9e sur un seul mod\u00e8le m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique ou m\u00eame d'une simple pr\u00e9vision moyenne issue d'une combinaison de mod\u00e8le (sans quantiles) n'aurait pas permis de d\u00e9clencher d'alerte et de limiter les pertes sur un grand nombre de r\u00e9gions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anticipez les risques m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques sur vos exploitations agricoles et optimisez le d\u00e9ploiement des moyens de protection gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 FROGCAST ! \ud83d\udcaa \ud83d\udc38<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FROGCAST a pr\u00e9dit avec pr\u00e9cision le risque de gel d'avril 2024 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des pr\u00e9visions probabilistes, aidant ainsi les agriculteurs \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger leurs cultures.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3177,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Late frosts: How our forecasts protected farmers | FROGCAST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Frogcast accurately forecasted late frosts in France, helping farmers anticipate risks and protect crops with probabilistic weather data.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frogcast.com\/fr\/blog\/meteorologie\/gelees-tardives-previsions-meteo-risque-gel\/\" \/>\n<meta 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