Late frosts: how did Frogcast's weather forecasts anticipate the risk of frost?

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The beginning of the week was particularly trying for French farmers, with morning frosts almost widespread across the north and east of the country. But how well did the Frogcast anticipate the spatial extension of the frost risk? ❄️🌱

Map presenting the risk of frost for the night of April 21, 2024.

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The following figure shows the probabilities of Tmin below 0°C, derived from Frogcast quantiles, for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Each red dot represents a station in Météo-France's main observation network whose temperature dropped below 0°C. Frogcast did a particularly good job of predicting the regions affected by frost on these two crucial days. The use of quantiles also made it possible to identify areas where the probability of falling below 0°C seemed limited, but which were ultimately affected by the morning frosts. Using a forecast based on a single weather model or even a simple average forecast from a model combination (without quantiles) would not have triggered an alert and limited losses in many regions.
Anticipate meteorological risks on your farms and optimize the deployment of means of protection thanks to Frogcast! 💪🐸

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